The Rise and Fall of Innovation - Technology S curve 📈

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The technology S-curve is a helpful way to understand how new technologies grow, succeed, and eventually slow down. It shows the typical journey of any innovation from early struggles to big success, then slowing down, and finally being replaced by something new. This idea is useful for business leaders, inventors, and anyone interested in how technology changes over time.

The technology S curve has 4 main stages. 

S curve phases

1. Ferment Stage – “Is this really going to work?”
At the beginning, the new technology is just an idea. It might not work well yet, and there’s a lot of confusion. Different people try different ways to make it better. No one knows for sure which version will win. Progress is slow and risky.

  • High uncertainty and risk
  • Intense R&D activity
  • Few early adopters
  • Fierce competition to establish a dominant design
 2. Takeoff Stage – “Now it’s working!”
Once a good version is found, the technology starts to grow fast. More people begin to use it. Companies invest more money. The market gets excited. This is when the technology becomes popular.
  • Explosive market growth
  • Rapid performance improvements
  • Expansion of production and distribution
  • Increasing economies of scale
3. Maturity Stage – “It’s everywhere now.”
After some time, almost everyone who wants the technology already has it. Growth slows down. Companies focus on making it cheaper or slightly better. The technology becomes normal and expected.
  • Plateauing growth rates
  • Market saturation
  • Standardization and commoditization
  • Intense competition on price and features
4. Discontinuity Stage – “What’s the next big thing?”
Eventually, new ideas and new technologies show up. The old technology stops being exciting. A better, newer solution might take its place. This is the moment when change happens, and the cycle starts again.
  • Stagnant or declining demand
  • Emergence of new, disruptive technologies
  • Need for reinvention or strategic pivot
Apple is a good example of this.

Summary Table - Apple iPhone S-Curve


The S-Curve helps us understand where a technology stands and what steps to take next. If a company knows the stage it’s in, it can make better choices. For example, in the early Ferment stage, it makes sense to invest in research and try different ideas. During the takeoff stage, it’s time to grow fast and reach more people. When the technology is mature, the focus should be on improving what already works and making things more efficient. And when discontinuity comes, it’s a signal to look ahead, because something new is around the corner.
This curve also shows why innovation should never stop. Even when one technology is doing well, smart companies are already exploring what comes next.

Thank you for reading. Have a great day! We will see you in the next article.

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